I recently discussed The Back Door. By this I mean people who slip out unnoticed for unknown reasons from your church. I broke folks down into three categories that relate to their level of engagement before they slipped out. The second post was about folks the church fails to retain. This post is about atrophy. By this I mean folks who attended, but never fully connected before they disappeared. These folks catch on and become attendees. They moved out of the guest category, but the never did quite get completely included.
First, a slight disclaimer. I like to work forward just like you do! I'd much rather work with a brand new family that is excited to be at our church. It is much easier to make calls and send letters to people that have no expectation that you know them personally. The biggest issue with the atrophy category is that we often feel we should know someone who has attended, but we don't!
Measuring Atrophy
The basic measure of atrophy is the number of attendee families that cease to attend your church each month. The difficulty is that in many cases time has to elapse before we can be certain they are no longer attending.
One of the first things I do when working with a new church is try to get a feel for who is truly active as opposed to those that may be languishing on the church mailing list without any recent evidence of activity. That means we have to decide if we have enough measures of attendance and participation to feel we can say with some certainty that a family has been around in the past 2-3 months. Conversly, if we can see who hasn't been around in say 4-5 months we are starting to get at the measure of atrophy. Clearly we don't want to wait 4 months to contact someone, but there is value in observing atrophy over time in order to decide:
- If we track enough information to make good decisions.
- When the best time might be to contact someone who seems to be missing.
Understanding Attendees As A Group
At any given time you should know who the attendee families are. They are folks who have made it into your database through multiple interactions. Maybe they went through your initial assimilation process. Normally that involves a letter or two, a phone call, and maybe some kind of orientation. You might have evidence their kids are attending or they may have given a few gifts. Hopefully you can tell who the Attendee families are and you have ways to distinguish them from guests and members in your ChMS. Hopefully you have identified the key things that move them into this category and that move them out of this category into a more involved "member" or "connected" category.
Atrophy related issues and quesitons
- Understanding how atrophy works over time in your church can create a baseline. If it is common to lose 50 families each month, you may begin to investigate if you see an increase.
- Some atrophy is a normal part of ministry. In transient areas like South Florida I believe it runs to about 15% each year.
- High atrophy may indicate there is a problem with the structures that exist for people to engage the church at a deeper level. You may be teaching on Bible study, small groups or finding a place to serve; while failing to provide consistent and clear paths to connect. If there is a window of time when an attendee is open to these things it may be too short to last until your next big ministry fair or the start of a seasonal program.
- Often no one has a personal relationship with the person who only attends worship. A relationship would make it natural to call them if they stop showing up. Without a relationship you are left with data. Data is inferior to relationships, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.
- I've not seen the church that has a proactive follow up for folks in this cateogry. Generally they have to graduate to membership or get involved in Bible Study or a Ministry Team before this happens.
- Churches routinely express an interest in sending letters and emailings to these folks when they stop attending, but I haven't seen this done on any large scale as a sustained process.
- While we sometimes know the person's spiritual journey, more often this is not documented. It is difficult to know whether this was a seeker, a new believer, or a mature Christian who failed to fully connect with the mission and community of the church.
- People sometimes decide to remain in this category for a long period of time. Some don't seem to want anything beyond the weekend worship service.
Unique Aspects of My Approach
- I consider it critical to automate the discovery of activity and change in categorization from guest to attendee.
- I move the family from guest to attendee as a group. Activity by any member of the family is assumed to be evidence for all.
- I prefer to automate the monthly IN-activation of attendees who haven't had activity in many months.
- I have not implemented two levels of attendees, but I suspect this could be helpful. Knowning whether someone is sporadic or consistent might be helpful, but I believe this is probably a distinction that would apply well to both attendees and members making it another dimension of participation.
I suspect that you might agree with me that more should be done to understand why people fall away. I want to know if we are not making our mission clear or if they had a hard time connecting meaningfully into the life of the church. I'm sure much of the time their life gets complicated. I'm sure some people just decide they don't like something about the church. However, I'd like to think there are cases where just asking would help them and help us and maybe even those who attend our church in the future.
The problem is that it seems as though putting energy in the direction of understanding atrophy would take it away from the very things people need to connect. I have a feeling were missing some important strategy. Do you? What if someone just made calls for 6 months and documented what was happening?
On the other hand, I also think the job of the support staff is to sustain the environments where the pastors and ministry leaders can equip people to connect with and minister to one another. In that sense, if we have dedicated lay ministers (teachers, small group leaders, team leaders) and they are available to those who attend we shouldn't need to look back quite so much.